{"id":813,"date":"2026-04-07T14:51:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T06:51:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/?p=813"},"modified":"2026-04-07T14:51:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T06:51:35","slug":"%e8%a7%80%e5%af%9f%e7%ad%86%e8%a8%98%e5%8f%b0%e7%a9%8d%e9%9b%bb%e8%82%a1%e5%83%b9%e9%80%99%e5%b9%be%e5%b9%b4%e6%bc%b2%e5%88%b0%e5%9a%87%e6%ad%bb%e4%ba%ba%ef%bc%8c%e5%88%b0%e5%ba%95%e7%82%ba%e4%bb%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/?p=813","title":{"rendered":"[\u89c0\u5bdf\u7b46\u8a18]\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u80a1\u50f9\u9019\u5e7e\u5e74\u6f32\u5230\u5687\u6b7b\u4eba\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u9019\u500b\u79d1\u6280\u9032\u6b65\u7a81\u98db\u731b\u9032\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6211\u5011\u6bcf\u5929\u7528\u7684\u6676\u7247\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u8ddf\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u4f46\u8aaa\u5be6\u8a71\uff0c\u5e7e\u5e74\u524d\u6211\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u60f3\u5230\u8b77\u570b\u795e\u5c71\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u7adf\u7136\u6703\u5f9e\u5e7e\u767e\u584a\u6f32\u5230\u7834 <strong>2000 \u5143<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>[\u8072\u660e]\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u7d66\u4f60\u660e\u724c\uff0c\u7d14\u7cb9\u662f\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u6574\u7406\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\u7b46\u8a18\u3002\u672c\u6587\u50c5\u70ba\u500b\u4eba\u5b78\u7fd2\u5fc3\u5f97\uff0c\u4e0d\u69cb\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8cc7\u5efa\u8b70\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u6709\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u8acb\u81ea\u884c\u5224\u65b7\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udcc8 \u5148\u770b\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u6f32\u5e45\u6709\u591a\u8a87\u5f35\uff1f<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 \u5e74\u521d\uff1a\u7d04 <strong>300 \u5143<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2024 \u5e74\u5168\u5e74\u6f32\u5e45\uff1a<strong>\u8d85\u904e 81%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>2025 \u5e74\u521d\uff1a\u4e00\u5ea6\u885d\u4e0a <strong>2025 \u5143<\/strong> \u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u5e02\u503c\u903c\u8fd1 <strong>52 \u5146\u53f0\u5e63<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u9019\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u725b\u5e02\u884c\u60c5\uff0c\u80cc\u5f8c\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udd0d \u539f\u56e0\u4e00\uff1aAI \u6d6a\u6f6e\uff0c\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u662f\u6700\u5927\u53d7\u76ca\u8005<\/h2>\n<p>\u9019\u662f\u6700\u6838\u5fc3\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>ChatGPT \u7206\u7d05\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5c0d AI \u6676\u7247\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u7206\u70b8\u6027\u6210\u9577\u3002NVIDIA \u7684 H100\u3001A100\u3001GB200\uff0cAMD \u7684 MI300\uff0cGoogle \u7684 TPU\u2026\u2026\u9019\u4e9b AI \u52a0\u901f\u5668\uff0c<strong>\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5168\u90e8\u90fd\u8981\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u4ee3\u5de5<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5916\u5a92\u751a\u81f3\u5c01\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u70ba <strong>\u300cAI \u7d42\u6975\u6a19\u7684\u300d<\/strong>\uff0c\u908f\u8f2f\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u300c\u4e0d\u7ba1 AI \u6676\u7247\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u8d0f\u5bb6\u662f\u8ab0\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u591a\u6578\u6676\u7247\u90fd\u9084\u662f\u8981\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u4f86\u751f\u7522\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u9019\u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u6dd8\u91d1\u71b1\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u8ab0\u6316\u5230\u91d1\u7926\uff0c\u8ce3\u93df\u5b50\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u8cfa\u9322\u3002\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u5c31\u662f\u90a3\u500b\u8ce3\u93df\u5b50\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udd0d \u539f\u56e0\u4e8c\uff1a\u6280\u8853\u8b77\u57ce\u6cb3\uff0c\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b\u8ffd\u4e0d\u4e0a<\/h2>\n<p>\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7684\u6280\u8853\u9818\u5148\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u9ede\u9ede\uff0c\u662f<strong>\u597d\u5e7e\u500b\u4e16\u4ee3<\/strong>\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>3 \u5948\u7c73\u88fd\u7a0b<\/strong>\uff1a\u5df2\u5927\u91cf\u91cf\u7522\uff0c\u860b\u679c\u3001NVIDIA \u90fd\u662f\u5ba2\u6236<\/li>\n<li><strong>2 \u5948\u7c73\u88fd\u7a0b<\/strong>\uff1a2025 \u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u91cf\u7522\uff0c\u6295\u7247\u91cf\u5df2\u8d85\u904e 3 \u5948\u7c73\u540c\u671f\u7684 <strong>1.5 \u500d<\/strong>\uff0c\u860b\u679c\u3001\u9ad8\u901a\u3001\u806f\u767c\u79d1\u6436\u8457\u5361\u4f4d<\/li>\n<li><strong>2nm \u71df\u6536<\/strong>\u9810\u8a08 2026 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5c07\u8d85\u8d8a 3nm \u8207 5nm \u7684\u7e3d\u548c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u53cd\u89c0\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b\uff1a<\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\u5ee0\u5546<\/th>\n<th>\u73fe\u6cc1<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u4e09\u661f<\/td>\n<td>\u826f\u7387\u554f\u984c\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u9ad8\u7aef\u5ba2\u6236\u6d41\u5931<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Intel<\/td>\n<td>\u88fd\u7a0b\u8f49\u578b\u56f0\u96e3\uff0cIDM 2.0 \u7b56\u7565\u53d7\u632b<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb<\/td>\n<td>\u5728 2nm \u7bc0\u9ede\u4e0a<strong>\u9818\u5148\u6240\u6709\u7af6\u722d\u5c0d\u624b<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u9019\u7a2e\u6280\u8853\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u7838\u9322\u5c31\u80fd\u77ed\u671f\u8ffd\u4e0a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udd0d \u539f\u56e0\u4e09\uff1a\u8ca1\u52d9\u6578\u5b57\u786c\u90a6\u90a6<\/h2>\n<p>\u80a1\u50f9\u9577\u671f\u53cd\u6620\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff0c\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7684\u8ca1\u52d9\u8868\u73fe\u771f\u7684\u5f88\u624e\u5be6\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2025 \u5e74 Q4 <strong>\u6bdb\u5229\u7387\u5f9e 59% \u6210\u9577\u5230 62.3%<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>\u71df\u696d\u5229\u76ca\u7387\u5f9e 49% \u6210\u9577\u5230 54%<\/strong> \uff08\u8cb7\u9032\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u76843\u500b\u7406\u7531\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u5148\u9032\u88fd\u7a0b\u7684\u5b9a\u50f9\u80fd\u529b\u5f37\uff0c\u5ba2\u6236\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u66ff\u4ee3\u9078\u9805<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u826f\u7387\u63d0\u5347 + \u88fd\u7a0b\u5347\u7d1a + \u5ba2\u6236\u9ecf\u8457\u5ea6\u9ad8<\/strong>\uff0c\u9019\u4e09\u4ef6\u4e8b\u540c\u6642\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u7372\u5229\u80fd\u529b\u7576\u7136\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5f37\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udd0d \u539f\u56e0\u56db\uff1a\u300cAI \u7d42\u6975\u6a19\u7684\u300d\u7684\u4e09\u9053\u9632\u706b\u7246<\/h2>\n<p>\u5916\u5a92\u5206\u6790\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u6709\u4e09\u5927\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u8b93\u5b83\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7121\u53ef\u53d6\u4ee3\uff1a<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>\u6280\u8853\u58c1\u58d8<\/strong>\uff1a\u5148\u9032\u88fd\u7a0b\u7684 know-how \u7d2f\u7a4d\u6578\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u8907\u88fd<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u898f\u6a21\u6548\u61c9<\/strong>\uff1a\u7522\u80fd\u8d8a\u5927\u3001\u826f\u7387\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3001\u6210\u672c\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u6b63\u5411\u5faa\u74b0<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u5ba2\u6236\u751f\u614b\u7cfb<\/strong>\uff1a\u860b\u679c\u3001NVIDIA\u3001AMD\u3001\u9ad8\u901a\u5168\u90fd\u7d81\u5728\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u4e0a\uff0c\u8f49\u63db\u6210\u672c\u6975\u9ad8<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u9019\u4e09\u9053\u7246\u758a\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u8d85\u9ad8\u6bdb\u5229\u7387\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\u26a0\ufe0f \u4f46\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u98a8\u96aa<\/h2>\n<p>\u524d\u9762\u8b1b\u4e86\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u4e5f\u4f86\u8b1b\u4e00\u4e0b\u6709\u5e7e\u500b\u96b1\u6182\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa<\/strong>\uff1a\u53f0\u6d77\u60c5\u52e2\u662f\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u5916\u8cc7\u9577\u671f\u7d66\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u300c\u5730\u7de3\u6298\u50f9\u300d\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u504f\u9ad8<\/strong>\uff1a\u80a1\u50f9\u6f32\u592a\u5feb\uff0c\u672c\u76ca\u6bd4\u5df2\u8d85\u904e\u6b77\u53f2\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8a8d\u70ba\u5df2\u53cd\u6620\u592a\u591a\u672a\u4f86\u9810\u671f <\/li>\n<li><strong>\u7f8e\u570b\/\u65e5\u672c\u5ee0\u7684\u6210\u672c\u58d3\u529b<\/strong>\uff1a\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u5ee0\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u58d3\u7e2e\u672a\u4f86\u7372\u5229\u7a7a\u9593<\/li>\n<li><strong>AI \u9700\u6c42\u662f\u5426\u6301\u7e8c<\/strong>\uff1a\u5982\u679c AI \u8cc7\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u8a02\u55ae\u4e5f\u6703\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udcad \u6211\u7684\u500b\u4eba\u89c0\u5bdf<\/h2>\n<p>\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u5929\u5929\u8ddf\u6676\u7247\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u5e2b\uff0c\u6211\u5c0d\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5be6\u529b\u662f\u771f\u5fc3\u4f69\u670d\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u6295\u8cc7\u9019\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c<strong>\u597d\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u597d\u6642\u6a5f<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u5f88\u5f37\uff0c\u9019\u6211\u8a8d\u540c\u3002\u4f46\u7562\u7adf 2000 \u5143\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u5df2\u7d93 price in \u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u6a02\u89c0\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u9019\u6642\u5019\u9032\u5834\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u548c\u5e7e\u5e74\u524d\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\uff1a<strong>\u5c0f\u90e8\u4f4d\u5b9a\u671f\u5b9a\u984d\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ffd\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e0d\u9810\u6e2c\u77ed\u671f\u6f32\u8dcc<\/strong>\uff0c\u5c31\u7576\u4f5c\u6301\u6709\u300c\u53f0\u7063\u534a\u5c0e\u9ad4\u7522\u696d\u7684\u4e00\u5f35\u9580\u7968\u300d\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>\ud83d\udcdd \u7e3d\u7d50<\/h2>\n<p>\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u9019\u5e7e\u5e74\u5927\u6f32\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u908f\u8f2f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\u7e3d\u7d50\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>AI \u6642\u4ee3\u4f86\u81e8\uff0c\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7b97\u529b\uff0c\u800c\u7b97\u529b\u9700\u8981\u6676\u7247\uff0c\u6676\u7247\u9700\u8981\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u908f\u8f2f\u76ee\u524d\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u88ab\u6253\u7834\u3002\u4f46\u6295\u8cc7\u6c38\u9060\u8981\u8003\u616e\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u9ad8\u9ede\u8ffd\u9032\u53bb\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5957\u5728\u5c71\u9802\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f60\u600e\u9ebc\u770b\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\uff1f\u6b61\u8fce\u7559\u8a00\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff01\ud83d\ude04<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u9019\u500b\u79d1\u6280\u9032\u6b65\u7a81\u98db\u731b\u9032\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6211\u5011\u6bcf\u5929\u7528\u7684\u6676\u7247\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u8ddf\u53f0\u7a4d\u96fb\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u4f46\u8aaa\u5be6\u8a71\uff0c &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/?p=813\">\u95b1\u8b80\u5168\u6587 <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[887,888,884,881,886,880,883,889,882,890,885],"class_list":["post-813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-11","tag-887","tag-888","tag-ai","tag-tsmc","tag-886","tag-880","tag-883","tag-889","tag-882","tag-890","tag-885"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=813"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":815,"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/813\/revisions\/815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hsiang.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}